Spider-Man exits the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Who loses the most, Disney or Sony?

Presumably, movie and comics fans around the world were shocked by the breakup between Sony and Marvel yesterday (21st). Sony officially announced at noon that Marvel will no longer be involved in future Spider-Man IPs, and Spider-Man will no longer be a part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. As for why this "divorce" case happened, and who will suffer the greater loss, everyone is full of doubts.

Did Marvel (Disney) ask for too much (asking for a 55% share of the next Spider-Man movie)? Or did Sony blindly want to break away from Marvel and revive its Spider-Man series, which had been controversial? Erik Davis, the sales editor-in-chief of the US ticketing giant Fandango, expressed his opinion: "Obviously both parties are responsible. From Disney's perspective, they did the 'heavy lifting' to make the Holland version of Spider-Man an unprecedented success both creatively and commercially, so they believe they are entitled to more than just the original meager 5% of the revenue. "

"I think the reason why Holland's Spider-Man was successful is largely because Disney let him star in movies that were not released by Sony, such as "Captain America: Civil War" and "Avengers 4", and deliberately put "Avengers 4" before "Spider-Man: Far From Home", which largely paved the way for the latter's high box office."

"Sony's response, on the other hand, was very direct: 'Go ahead, we can't give you half of our most successful IP.' After Venom made $800 million and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse won an Oscar, they may have gained considerable confidence that they can push this IP forward without the help of Marvel and Disney. "

Let's assume that the next Spider-Man movie can also make $1 billion (similar to Far From Home), and in the worst case, it can make the same $709 million as The Amazing Spider-Man 2. For Sony, giving Disney $500 million is still a bigger loss than the latter scenario.

Senior box office analyst Jeff Bock also said that the decision was obvious. "(Sony) now has hundreds of characters at its disposal, and they can easily produce a movie universe that is the same size as Disney, or second only to Disney. This is a huge asset for Sony. There is no business sense to let go of 50% of this property. In terms of box office dominance, superhero movies in the next decade are still likely to lead the trend. Sony has no reason to give Disney such a big advantage. "

When it comes to the possibility of the two sides returning to the negotiation table, Bock said with a smile that this is not in line with the character of both parties: "If this is really what Disney asked for, it will not suddenly change to 64 or 73. The only way it can work is for Disney to give up more, and I don't think they will do that. Anyone who has dealt with Disney knows that this is not a trade secret. Disney will not give in on any issue. "

Although it makes more sense for Sony to operate its IP independently, without Kevin Feige at Marvel, it would bring them huge creative risks. Sony may think they have learned a lot from him, but there is only one Feige in the world, and DC has also proven through years of struggle that it is not easy to replicate Feige's success.

As for the fact that a large part of the appeal of Tom Holland's Spider-Man comes from his interactions with other Marvel heroes, can Sony replicate this by launching new characters from the original Spider-Man, or working with Tom Hardy's anti-hero Venom? And will mainstream moviegoers, who may not be able to figure out who these heroes are from, care about this?

“I think audiences don’t care, and they don’t think about the intrigues behind the scenes afterwards,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “They care about the movie and the marketing, and to be honest, that’s the problem. A lot of casual fans will say, ‘Wow, that’s cool, that’s possible,’ if they see Venom and Spider-Man together. So I think there is a way for Sony to make a lot of money by building their own universe with these Oscar-level actors. ”

But the next Spider-Man movie will be produced entirely by Sony, with zero involvement from Marvel. Therefore, Sony is under tremendous pressure to launch a creative and commercially successful movie.

"In the short term, this won't benefit Sony, but in the long run, if they have the right creative talent and the quality of their movies improves, they will get out of this mess and make a lot of money. But in any case, Marvel will always be a ghost in their background until the day when everyone will unconditionally praise every movie Sony releases. "

Back to Disney's perspective. Marvel now has Fox's "X-Men", "Deadpool", and "Fantastic Four" as its new favorites. Does it really need "Spider-Man" so much? On the one hand, yes, "Spider-Man" means a lot to Marvel. Little Spider, Black Panther, and Captain Marvel are the three people who can replace Iron Man and Captain America as the new core of the MCU, so if you take one of them away, it will be a big problem, especially if you take away the youngest one.

But I think a full X-Men and Fantastic Four team would offset that loss, and people are now very interested in what Feige will do with the Fox legacy. If they are done with Spider-Man, then this is the best opportunity for Marvel to promote the original Fox IP.